Monitoring the change in annual drought conditions in Iraq for the period (1981-2022), using statistical methods and modern technologies

Abstract

Climate change is a natural phenomenon that occurs every several thousand years, but with the increase in human activities, climate change has accelerated. Since climate is the average of successive weather conditions in a place over a long period, it may be a month, a season, a year, or several years. Therefore, we find that climatology is concerned with showing the average or median weather conditions prevailing in a region rather than showing daily changes in weather conditions in the region. Therefore, climate change had a significant impact on drought conditions in the location of the study area during the period (1081-2022). The reason for this is that Iraq is characterized by its equatoriality and flat surface in the central and southern regions, which makes it enjoy fast wind movement that raises dust storms that reduce the level of humidity. Stations in southern and central Iraq recorded the highest frequency, represented by the dominance of (south-easterly) winds in the summer season, while stations in the northern region recorded the lowest frequency of this type of wind in the (winter) season. The reason is due to the high temperatures, the variation in humidity, and the frequency of winds in the summer and spring seasons, where air highs prevail and the frequency of air lows decreases, and since climate change causes the retention of rain in the winter with the phenomenon of global warming or the intensity of rain in the spring, summer and fall seasons due to... The phenomenon of convection, which becomes more active due to the heating of the Earth, as well as an increase in the pressure gradient as a result of the deepening of the depression. Seasonal thermal, while the reason for the decrease in wind speed in the fall and winter is due to the lack of thermal activity, the decline of the seasonal low, and the increase in the influence of the Siberian High. Since the drought trend and rising global temperatures have negatively affected drought conditions in Iraq, causing scarcity of rainfall throughout Iraq. Due to the decrease in the frequency of air depressions in the winter, as well as the dominance of air highs, which causes a decline in rain and a lack of humidity or its variation from one region to another, and using statistical methods and the SPSS program, it became clear that Iraq is going through varying periods of drought, which affected the climate conditions over a period of 41 years and during three cycles. Micro-climate cycle and macro-climate cycle.